In the article of The Economist: “The onrushing wave In 1930 they talked when the world was “suffering…from a bad attack of economic pessimism”, John Maynard Keynes wrote a broadly optimistic essay, “Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren”. It imagined a middle way between revolution and stagnation that would leave the said grandchildren a great deal richer than their grandparents. But the path was not without dangers.”
“One of the worries Keynes admitted was a “new disease”: “technological unemployment…due to our discovery of means of economizing the use of labor outrunning the pace at which we can find new uses for labor.” His readers might not have heard of the problem, he suggested—but they were certain to hear a lot more about it in the years to come."
The debate that technology innovation causes unemployment is not new, but right now, in this “everything is IT” world, the time spent from innovation to delivery to the market is incredibly fast and the more “modern” professions such as IT developer and/or programmer could be at risk and under a new continuous attack. Could these developers be the new hand weavers of our time? - one of the first professionals of the world to have their job security affected by the technology and automation.
They will die in the shower like Marion Crane in PSYCHO?
As they mention in The Economist article: “The impacts of technological change take their time appearing. They also vary hugely from industry to industry. Although in many simple economic models technology pairs neatly with capital and labour to produce output, in practice technological changes do not affect all workers the same way. Some find that their skills are complementary to new technologies. Others find themselves out of work.”
A great book for everyone is Big Data : A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think from Viktor Mayer-Schönbergerhe and Kenneth Cukier (even if you are not an IT person).
One story is about how Google and Microsoft created a new method to improve the grammar checker and translation process by using huge volumes of data and advanced algorithms. They weren’t sure whether it would be more useful to put their efforts into improving existing algorithms, finding new techniques, or adding more sophisticated features. The authors mention how our daily life will change forever with the increasing use of Big Data, Predictive and Cognitive Computing.
To develop a product or a system for the users and the market (independently of our methodology) is never an easy process. You have to listen, interpret, evaluate and ask the right question, but at the end, the way you translate that information and data in software and in many cases is totally different than what is expected, which depends so much on human interpretation.
The current avalanche of the 5 V’s of Big Data (Volume, Velocity, Variety , Veracity, Value) well explained by Bernard Marr, advances in cognitive computing and what I call ‘on-line collective intelligence’ can take us to this simple high level imaginary scenario:
1. I’m a business user sitting in front of my computer with a new idea for a system and/or a product;
2. I just start to speak saying that I want a website for my new marketing campaign using information from my back end CRM system and using content from my content management system;
3. On-line right in front of me, I see my screen creating a functional prototype and while I speak, I receive insightful questions to detail what I want and to identify the best scenario considering my competitors and what is available on the internet.
This is a fictional scenario, but in this case, not only the developers are no longer necessary, but neither is the business analyst.
I always encourage my mentees and IT teams to have at least one coding experience. I believe it is fundamental to create a solid base if you plan to develop a career in IT.
In many websites and books, you can read information about new professions such as the “data scientist,” which combines the skills of a statistician, software programmer, infographics designer, and storyteller. But, as with all new technology, the advance demands from the workforce to adapt and merge different types of knowledge and expertise. So for the expert of the past to be the expert of the future, he must be able to consolidate these several high demand skillsets.
Coding, developing and programming are similar to paintings (like Kandinsky, Renoir or just urban art), with totally different visions and interpretations depending on Who and How one looks at it, but each has its beauty. The lines of code suffer the scrutiny of the business world, for judgment or approval and like a painting, everyone can see something different that transports them to different places and brings new horizons. Ultimately, new technologies and IT innovation are here from the brilliant minds of engineers and developers.
I don’t believe Big Data and cognitive computing will be the new Norman Bates and the developers the new Marion Crane. We have already begun to change the way we think, innovate, create, produce, release and review our software/products.
• We’re not too far from the future.
• We’re not too far from the past.
• And this moment won’t last.
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I’d enjoy hearing from the LinkedIn community about their vision for the future of developers and how we design software and products. What new initiatives and projects are being used to develop software and products? What is the future of the IT profession?
It is an enormous pleasure to have you read my post and provide some feedback. Here, at LinkedIn, I regularly write about IT, Innovation, Leadership and Management with a personal touch. Please feel free to connect.
[Photos: PSYCHO movie, The Economist]
[Reference from the The Economist: The future of jobs - The onrushing wave]
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less
